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2009 NFL and NCAA Football Against The Spread (ATS) Trends

Here is a look before the 2009 College Football season starts on many teams and some basic ATS trends:

Air Force -- 12-2 ATS in first Conference game, 0-8 ATS after scoring less than 10 points, 0-5 ATS as Conference Home Favorites greater than 14 points

Akron -- Finished '07 on a 1-4-1 ATS run, finished '06 on an 0-5 ATS run, finished '08 on a 2-5 ATS run

Alabama -- 9-5 ATS as Road Favorites past five seasons

UAB -- 1-5 ATS as Road Favorites

Arizona -- 9-3 ATS at Home past two seasons

Arizona State -- On 4-11 ATS losing run lately

Arkansas -- Finished on 5-2 ATS winning run for first-year Head Coach Petrino

Arkansas State -- 1-8 ATS as Road Favorites in seven years under Head Coach Steve Roberts

Army -- New Head Coach

Auburn -- New Head Coach

Ball State -- New Head Coach, 11-4 ATS as Road Dogs recently

Baylor -- Finished on 5-0 ATS winning run under first-year Head Coach Briles

Boise State -- 19-8 ATS as Home Favorites past four seasons

Boston College -- New Head Coach

Bowling Green -- New Head Coach, 11-4 ATS as Road Dogs recently

BYU -- Finished last season on 1-8 ATS losing run

Buffalo -- 22-11 ATS in Conference Play past three seasons

California -- 5-1 ATS in Game One, 7-0 ATS as Home Favorites last season

Central Florida -- 1-8 ATS as Conference Road Favorites, 0-4 ATS as greater than 20 point Favorites

Central Michigan -- 13-5 ATS at Home past four seasons

Cincinnati -- 1-9 ATS last game of season

Clemson -- 1-8 ATS as Double Digit Road Favorites

Colorado -- 4-14 ATS as Road Dogs past four seasons

Colorado State -- 5-0 ATS at Home under first-year Head Coach Steve Fairchild

Connecticut -- 8-2 ATS as Home Dogs past four seasons

Duke -- 11-6 ATS as Road Dogs past three seasons

East Carolina -- 15-3 ATS as Road Dogs in four seasons under Head Coach Skip Holtz

Eastern Michigan -- New Head Coach, 4-9 ATS as Home Dogs in past five seasons

Florida -- 6-1-1 ATS as Road Dogs lately, 7-0 ATS as Road Favorites last season

Florida Atlantic -- 7-1 ATS as Road Favorites past three seasons

Florida State -- 5-0 ATS in Bowl Games

Fresno State -- 4-19 ATS as Favorites past three seasons

Georgia -- 8-1 ATS as Road Dogs lately

Georgia Tech -- 8-3 ATS under first-year Head Coach Paul Johnson

Hawaii -- Finished on 7-3 ATS winning run under first-year Head Coach Greg McMakin

Houston -- Won as Bowlers under first-year Head Coach Kevin Sumlin

Idaho -- 9-16 ATS as Road Dogs past four seasons

Illinois -- 15-9 ATS in Conference Play last three seasons

Iowa -- 4-9 ATS as Home Favorites past three seasons

Iowa State -- New Head Coach

Kansas -- 14-4 ATS as Home Favorites past four seasons

Kansas State -- 1-8 ATS as Road Favorites last five seasons, 0-6 ATS last two games of last three seasons

Kent State -- 1-9 ATS after they score a Touchdown or less

Kentucky -- three Bowl wins in a row, 2-1 ATS in them

UL-Lafayette -- 6-1 ATS as Favorites past two seasons

UL-Monroe -- 17-8 ATS as Road Dogs last four seasons, finished last three seasons on two 5-0 ATS and one 4-1 ATS winning runs

LSU -- 8-22 ATS in Conference Play, 4-0 ATS in Bowls in four seasons under Head Coach Les Miles 

Louisiana Tech -- 6-23 ATS as Road Dogs and 5-0 ATS as Home Dogs recently

Louisville -- 2-6 ATS as Home Favorites

Marshall -- 6-15 ATS as Road Dogs recently

Maryland -- 0-4 ATS as Road Favorites

Memphis -- 3-8 ATS as Home Favorites last four seasons

Miami -- 17-30 ATS record last four seasons

Michigan -- 2-10 ATS under first-year Head Coach Rich Rodriguez

Michigan State -- 19-3 ATS in last Home game

MTSU -- 6-2 ATS as Road Favorites past four seasons

Mississippi -- 5-0 ATS as Road Dogs and finished on 5-0 ATS winning run under first-year Head Coach Nutt

Mississippi State -- New Head Coach

Missouri -- 37-3 ATS when they win Straight Up on the Road

Navy -- 13-5 ATS as Road Dogs last four seasons

North Carolina -- 2-8 ATS as Favorites less than a Touchdown

North Carolina State -- Finished last season on 8-0 ATS winning run

Notre Dame -- 7-13 ATS as Home Favorites and 5-1 ATS as Road Favorites lately

Ohio State -- 16-4 ATS as Road Favorites recently

Oklahoma -- 0-3 ATS last three Bowl events

Oregon -- 15-7 ATS as Home Favorites last four seasons, 9-1 ATS first Road game

Oregon State -- 4-1 ATS last five Bowl games

Penn State -- 14-8 ATS as Home Favorites past four seasons

Pittsburgh -- 2-7 ATS as Home Favorites past two seasons

Rice -- 20-2 ATS as Home Dogs in Conference Play

Rutgers -- 0-8 ATS as Favorites of less than a Touchdown

San Diego State -- New Head Coach, 0-9 ATS as Home Dogs greater than two Touchdowns

San Jose State -- 12-2 ATS as Home Favorites

SMU -- 1-9 ATS on the Road in non-Conference Play

Southern Mississippi -- Finished on 5-0 ATS winning run under first-year Head Coach Larry Fedora

TCU -- 17-4 ATS at Home last four seasons

Temple -- 18-7 ATS in Conference Play last five seasons, 12-4 ATS as Home Dogs

Texas -- 14-2 ATS in last Home game, 7-0 ATS as Road Dogs

Texas A&M -- 2-36 ATS when they lose on the Road

Texas Tech -- 1-6 ATS as Road Dogs, 3-0 ATS as Home Dogs

Troy -- 14-7 ATS as Road Dogs recently

UCLA -- 24-8 ATS at Home past five seasons

UNLV -- 3-11 ATS as Home Favorites recently

USC -- 11-2 ATS in last Home game, 6-1 ATS in Bowl games

Utah -- 16-8 ATS in Conference Play last three seasons

Vanderbilt -- 17-5 ATS as Road Dogs

Virginia -- 3-9 ATS as Road Favorites last four seasons

Virginia Tech -- 24-9 ATS on the Road last four seasons, 2-9 ATS in non-Conference Play recently

Wake Forest -- 10-1 ATS as Double Digit non-Conference Dogs recently

Washington -- 1-11 as Home Favorites last five seasons, 0-13 ATS as Conference Favorites greater than a field goal

Washington State -- Finished on 4-0 ATS winning run for first-year Head Coach Paul Wulff, 7-15 as Road Dogs

West Virginia -- 9-1 ATS as Conference Dogs

Western Kentucky -- 2-7-1 ATS in first lined year

Wisconsin -- 8-0 ATS as non-Conference Favorites less than 24 points

Wyoming -- New Head Coach

 

 

Here is a look before the 2009 NFL Football season starts on teams and some basic ATS trends:

 

Arizona -- 5-0 ATS after scoring less than 10 points, 0-4 ATS as Favorites on Monday Night Football

Atlanta -- 0-12 ATS Home off of back-to-back Straight Up wins

Baltimore -- 15-0 ATS at Home after playing a non-Conference game

Buffalo -- 3-20 ATS after playing Miami

Carolina -- 7-0 ATS after allowing at least 35 points, 1-6 ATS after allowing less than a Touchdown

Chicago -- 5-0 ATS as Double Digit Dogs, 1-8 ATS as Favorites on MNF

Cincinnati -- 10-0 ATS after playing Cleveland, 0-7 ATS after playing the Steelers

Cleveland -- 5-1 ATS as Road Favorites, 10-2 ATS after playing Cincinnati, 1-8 ATS before playing Cincinnati

Dallas -- 9-1 ATS after losing by Double Digits, 12-107 ATS when they lose Straight Up

Denver -- New Head Coach, 14-33-1 ATS last three seasons

Detroit -- New Head Coach, 0-7 ATS before they play Green Bay

Green Bay -- 0-12 ATS as Favorites greater than 11 points, 16-8 ATS on the Road last three seasons

Houston -- 8-2 ATS as Home Dogs in three seasons under Head Coach Gary Kubiak, 0-3 ATS lifetime as Road Favorites

Indianapolis -- New Head Coach, 10-2 ATS before playing Jacksonville, 10-2 ATS after playing Houston

Jacksonville -- 9-1 ATS before playing Indianapolis, 13-2 ATS before playing Tennessee

Kansas City -- New Head Coach, 0-6 ATS as non-Conference Road Favorites, 7-1 ATS as Double Digit Dogs

Miami -- 7-0 ATS on the Road versus the AFC West, 0-6 ATS as Home Favorites greater than a Touchdown

Minnesota -- 0-5 ATS as Double Digit Favorites, 1-7 ATS after allowing less than 10 points

New England -- 9-2 ATS before playing Buffalo, 1-7 ATS as Double Digit Favorites

New Orleans -- 5-0-1 ATS after playing Atlanta, 1-12 ATS as Favorites greater than a Touchdown in Division Play

NY Giants -- 22-7 ATS on the Road last three seasons, 5-0 ATS before playing the Eagles, 1-5 ATS as Dogs on MNF

NY Jets -- New Head Coach, Home team in New England series is 0-7 ATS

Oakland -- 0-9 ATS as Home Favorites, 0-5 ATS after playing San Diego, Road team in Kansas City series is 6-0 ATS

Philadelphia -- 5-0 ATS after playing Washington, 11-1 ATS after playing the Giants, 1-7 ATS Home after two Road games

Pittsburgh -- 8-1 ATS before playing Cleveland, 13-3 ATS before playing Baltimore, 1-7 ATS before playing Cincinnati

St. Louis -- New Head Coach, 0-6 ATS after playing a Division game on the Road

San Diego -- 4-0 ATS as Home Dogs, 8-1 ATS after playing Denver, 1-5 ATS as Double Digit Favorites

San Francisco -- 0-5 ATS before playing Seattle, 1-7 ATS after they score at least 28 points, Road team in Arizona series is 8-0 ATS

Seattle -- New Head Coach, 5-0 ATS before playing Arizona, 1-6 ATS on the Road after playing St. Louis

Tampa Bay -- New Head Coach, 4-0-1 ATS as Favorites versus the NFC East, 2-10 ATS on the Road in non-Conference Play

Tennessee -- 5-0 ATS as Double Digit Favorites, 6-1 ATS before the Bye Week, 0-4 ATS on MNF as Division Dogs

Washington -- 7-1 ATS before playing the Giants, 1-8 ATS at Home in non-Conference Play, and 0-5 ATS as Favorites on MNF

 

 

2009 NCAA and NFL Football Wagering Tips 

Emotion— The most important betting edge to know about in football wagering isn't statistics or numbers.  The most important edge is emotion.  Find the team that desires to win more than their opponent and they'll cover a high percentage of those events.  This is true in all sports.  But it is even more significant in a physical game like NCAA and NFL Football.  Certain Coaches are much better than others in getting their teams ready for games by providing the impetus for emotion.  Such Coaches as Bobby Bowden, Pete Carroll, Tom O'Brien, Urban Meyer, and Bill Belichick among others have all shown their worth in this area over the years. 

Sandwich Games— Be careful of ‘sandwich' games. That is the game for a team that's in between two other more important games.  The NFL split into different Divisions recently, with fewer teams in each Division.  Since then we have both the AFC and NFC broken down into four Divisions consisting of four teams each.  They are called the East, North, South and West.  So now Division games are of even greater significance than in the past with fewer teams in each Division.  When it comes to determining the Playoff picture, these games are the most important to each competing team. 

If Tennessee for example, early in the season, plays Indianapolis this week and Jacksonville in two weeks, you know they're going to be focused on those two inter-Divisional games.  But if the in-between game is against say San Francisco, a lesser out of Conference team, be careful!  Tennessee will have most likely played a tough game the week before, and have an important tough game the following week.  Starters may be pulled early against San Francisco, and those hurting from the previous game might not even play in this one. 

Too many bettors jump on a team that has been covering on the ‘sandwich' game, laying way too much ‘wood'.  The team usually wins, but fails to cover.  Then the bettor jumps off of Tennessee the following week against Jacksonville because the bettor got burnt the week before in the sandwich game!

Line Movement— Sometimes line movement means nothing, and sometimes it means everything.  When I wager (my favorite recreation), I want the line to be bet dead or move ˝ to one point with me.  Not a lot of movement, but slightly in agreement with me.  When a line moves more than one point, especially in the NFL, it can be a dangerous play.  This can denote injuries or other late information such as weather, etc.  But be careful, NFL teams are notorious for giving out misleading disinformation more so than any other sport.

Quite often with big line movement in the NFL, the final score falls in between the original line and the final line.  This opens the door for ‘middlers', those who bet early one way and late the other way on the same game.  I know several gamblers who make their living on this, and i have been successful myself at it.  They give up the 10% ‘juice' in hopes of winning both ways.  The most they can lose is 5% of their total bet.  They clean up if one play pushes or wins and the other play wins.

NCAA football can be different though. With so many lined college games nowadays, big line movement can be bet on.  For two years in a row in the early 1990's, the Ivy League football team that got the most line movement during the week won every single game those years.  Every week!  For games like these with fewer wagers on them, the line can easily move 3 to 5 points.  Sometimes it can move even more.  Beware of betting against this line movement, it generally is right. In the Colleges, stay away from wagering against consistent and massive line movement in one direction. 

Here's wishing all Football bettors a great 2009 Football Wagering Season!  Make sure to stop by the http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com site for tons of FREE Wagering Information, Contests, Lines, Scores, and more importantly, FREE Winners! 

--Rich Green

Editor@FreeSportsLetter.com

http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com

 

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