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Sunday February 4

Check back at Noon et and click 'Refresh'.

Super Bowl LII, 6:30 et   (Roof)

Current Line

Philadelphia  48

New England -5.5

--Rich Green


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NCAA and NFL Football Wagering Tips

Emotion— The most important betting edge to know about in football wagering isn't statistics or numbers.  The most important edge is emotion.  Find the team that desires to win more than their opponent and they'll cover a high percentage of those events.  This is true in all sports.  But it is even more significant in a physical game like NCAA and NFL Football.  Certain Coaches are much better than others in getting their teams ready for games by providing the impetus for emotion.  Such Coaches as Pete Carroll, Tom O'Brien, and Bill Belichick among others have all shown their worth in this area over the years. 

Sandwich Games— Be careful of ‘sandwich' games. That is the game for a team that's in between two other more important games.  The NFL split into different Divisions recently, with fewer teams in each Division.  Since then we have both the AFC and NFC broken down into four Divisions consisting of four teams each.  They are called the East, North, South and West.  So now Division games are of even greater significance than in the past with fewer teams in each Division.  When it comes to determining the Playoff picture, these games are the most important to each competing team. 

If Tennessee for example, early in the season, plays Indianapolis this week and Jacksonville in two weeks, you know they're going to be focused on those two inter-Divisional games.  But if the in-between game is against say San Francisco, a lesser out of Conference team, be careful!  Tennessee will have most likely played a tough game the week before, and have an important tough game the following week.  Starters may be pulled early against San Francisco, and those hurting from the previous game might not even play in this one. 

Too many bettors jump on a team that has been covering on the ‘sandwich' game, laying way too much ‘wood'.  The team usually wins, but fails to cover.  Then the bettor jumps off of Tennessee the following week against Jacksonville because the bettor got burnt the week before in the sandwich game!

Line Movement— Sometimes line movement means nothing, and sometimes it means everything.  When I wager (my favorite recreation), I want the line to be bet dead or move ˝ to one point with me.  Not a lot of movement, but slightly in agreement with me.  When a line moves more than one point, especially in the NFL, it can be a dangerous play.  This can denote injuries or other late information such as weather, etc.  But be careful, NFL teams are notorious for giving out misleading disinformation more so than any other sport.                 

Quite often with big line movement in the NFL, the final score falls in between the original line and the final line.  This opens the door for ‘middlers', those who bet early one way and late the other way on the same game.  I know several gamblers who make their living on this, and i have been successful myself at it.  They give up the 10% ‘juice' in hopes of winning both ways.  The most they can lose is 5% of their total bet.  They clean up if one play pushes or wins and the other play wins.                 

NCAA football can be different though. With so many lined college games nowadays, big line movement can be bet on.  For two years in a row in the early 1990's, the Ivy League football team that got the most line movement during the week won every single game those years.  Every week!  For games like these with fewer wagers on them, the line can easily move 3 to 5 points.  Sometimes it can move even more.  Beware of betting against this line movement, it generally is right. In the Colleges, stay away from wagering against consistent and massive line movement in one direction. 

Here's wishing all Football bettors a great Football Wagering Season!  

--Rich Green

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