2010 NCAA and NFL Football Wagering Tips
Emotion— The most important
betting edge to know about in football wagering isn't statistics or
numbers. The most important edge is emotion. Find the team
that desires to win more than their opponent and they'll cover a high
percentage of those events. This is true in all sports. But it
is even more significant in a physical game like NCAA and NFL Football.
Certain Coaches are much better than others in getting their teams ready
for games by providing the impetus for emotion. Such Coaches as
Bobby Bowden, Pete Carroll, Tom O'Brien, Urban Meyer, and
Bill Belichick among others have all shown their worth in this area over
the years.
Sandwich Games— Be
careful of ‘sandwich' games. That is the game for a team that's in
between two other more important games. The NFL split into different
Divisions recently, with fewer teams in each Division. Since then we
have both the AFC and NFC broken down into four Divisions consisting of
four teams each. They are called the East, North, South and West.
So now Division games are of even greater significance than in the past
with fewer teams in each Division. When it comes to determining the
Playoff picture, these games are the most important to each competing
team.
If Tennessee for example, early in the
season, plays Indianapolis this week and Jacksonville in two weeks, you
know they're going to be focused on those two inter-Divisional games.
But if the in-between game is against say San Francisco, a lesser out of
Conference team, be careful! Tennessee will have most likely played
a tough game the week before, and have an important tough game the
following week. Starters may be pulled early against San Francisco, and
those hurting from the previous game might not even play in this one.
Too many bettors jump on a team that has
been covering on the ‘sandwich' game, laying way too much ‘wood'.
The team usually wins, but fails to cover. Then the bettor jumps off
of Tennessee the following week against Jacksonville because the bettor
got burnt the week before in the sandwich game!
Line Movement— Sometimes line
movement means nothing,
and sometimes it means everything. When I wager (my favorite recreation), I want the line to be bet dead or move ˝ to one point with
me. Not a lot of movement, but slightly in agreement with me.
When a line moves more than one point, especially in the NFL, it can be a
dangerous play. This can denote injuries or other late information
such as weather, etc. But be careful, NFL teams are notorious for
giving out misleading disinformation more so than any other sport.
Quite often with big line movement in the
NFL, the final score falls in between the original line and the final
line. This opens the door for ‘middlers', those who bet early one
way and late the other way on the same game. I know several gamblers
who make their living on this, and i have been successful myself at it.
They give up the 10% ‘juice' in hopes of winning both ways. The
most they can lose is 5% of their total bet. They clean up if one
play pushes or wins and the other play wins.
NCAA football can be different though. With
so many lined college games nowadays, big line movement can be bet on.
For two years in a row in the early 1990's, the Ivy League football team
that got the most line movement during the week won every single game
those years. Every week! For games like these with fewer
wagers on them, the line can easily move 3 to 5 points. Sometimes it
can move even more. Beware of betting against this line movement, it
generally is right. In the Colleges, stay away from wagering against
consistent and massive line movement in one direction.
Here's wishing all Football bettors a great
2009 Football Wagering Season!
--Rich Green
Editor@FreeSportsLetter.com
