We enter the new NFL Football betting season fresh with a full bankroll, and with proper knowledge and experience we can win big money. By sticking to specific wagering rules we can prolong our winning streaks and prevent getting tapped out on bad bets.
One such rule is to be wary of NFL Sandwich Games, especially late into a grueling season. There is always the temptation of wagering on prohibitive Football favorites with only one game to bet on whether it is Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football, etc.
The reason for the name is the theory that this is a game that is not as important to the team as the two events around it — similar to a sandwich. Here we detail how to recognize and identify an NFL Sandwich Game to avoid the pitfalls of betting on it.
How to smell out the NFL Sandwich Game
While this scenario can occur once the season is underway, it usually stinks the most towards the end of the Football schedule. The NFL is broken up into eight different Divisions of four teams each, for a total of 32 franchises. For Playoff positioning, the least important games are non-Conference, i.e. AFC vs NFC. Then comes Conference events, and finally the Division games, which are key.
Whether it is handicapping our Premium NFL Football Picks or our Free NFL Football Picks, Division games are always looked at differently and with a finer-toothed comb. These events will generally be played closer and to the end between teams facing each other twice every year.
Watch out for a good team that has endured a tough schedule with no Bye Week, coming off an important Division event with another similar Division game to follow in a week. If they are playing a lesser out of Division team this week they may rest injured Players or be looking ahead to that bigger game.
The novice bettor is encouraged to bet more on the Monday Night Football or Thursday Football Game as it is the only one on the card. The Favorite clearly looks best and the public pounds that team with action moving the line up.
Think back to the all the NFL games on Monday or on Thursday Night you have wagered on. Whether you started last year or have been betting on Football for almost 45 years like myself — these Favorites go down more often than not when everyone and his brother and sister bets on them, especially the Sandwich Game.
Some examples to learn from
Above from Marc Lawrence’s Playbook Magazine we see Tampa Bay’s 2021 final games chart. With their Bye eight weeks back they had played two Division games versus New Orleans and at Carolina, with the Home return match the following week vs Carolina.
In between the Division games the Bucs went off as 14.5 point Road Favorites at the Jets. Trailing 24-17 entering the fourth quarter, they scored 11 points to win the game Straight Up, but failed to cover the line Against The Spread.
In the above example also from Marc Lawrence’s Playbook Magazine we see Dallas’s final games chart. With their Bye the week way back before Halloween, we can see they played four hard games in a row, the last three in Division Play, and covered them all. In between four important Division events (they would play Philadelphia the next week)
As 6.5 point Home Favorites versus out of Division Arizona, they trailed 22-7 entering the fourth quarter. Scoring 15 points late, they still lost the game Straight Up. Both situations above involved top teams — the Bucs were World Champions, and the Cowboys ended the regular season at 12-5.
Tweaking our NFL Football bets
So where can we find a betting edge in this era of highly-paid professional sports athletes and franchises that can offer such incredible conveniences, trainers, and equipment? It comes down to planning and emotion. What games are the teams trying to win the most? Versus what rival does the pro athlete get agitated by and riled up to play hard against?
This article is designed more to help the sports bettor focus on the right choices to make in wagering. It’s a good start to be wary of the NFL Sandwich Game, and to keep the mindset to bet on meaningful games usually on good teams. Even our Free NFL Football Picks take that into consideration.
Before we wrap this up and summarize how to avoid losing on NFL betting, let’s stay positive and focus on winning. In over 45 years of sports betting going back to my Junior year in High School when i showed the other kids on the bus almost $2,000 in cash won on sports betting (hey i was earning $1.75/hour at work!), this sports betting fact remains true: The best sport bet is on a good team that shows good trends in the current match up, is healthy, and wants to win. Single Digit Favorite line or even taking points with the Dog line works here.
Steps to avoid losing on NFL Sandwich Games
Without having to delve deep into statistics and recent sports history, it’s easy enough for even the part time NFL bettor to take a look at the NFL schedule online. Review the teams you are thinking of betting on or against. Who did they play last, was it a physical game? When is their next game and who do they play after this one? We have a free sports betting resources page available with great links to NFL Injury reports, NFL Weather, NFL Schedules, lines/odds, etc.
If there is only one NFL game that day, and the heavy Favorite is coming off some tough events and plays a Division rival after this one, then we should pass. Or explore wagering on the Under if the Favorite is banged up and will do enough to win. Taking the points might be the right option with a little investigation on the Underdog in this scenario.
Let’s make sure not to jump on the bandwagon and pound the Favorite without spending a few minutes reading up on the game online or watching some relaxing NFL Football sports shows. And now with the advent of sports betting shows on TV we really can garner a lot of good stuff whilst drinking a beer, soda, or healthy beverage.
–Rich Green
Editor@FreeSportsLetter.com
2000-2022